Will exactly 3 governors lose re-election in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will exactly 3 governors lose re-election in 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market is severely illiquid with only $36 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with only $36 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable. The 1,427% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of extreme mispricing in thin markets—such astronomical returns suggest either deep underpricing or that the contract is essentially non-tradeable at scale. With 259 days to expiration and a 10 Cliff Risk Index, the market has adequate time for price discovery, but the neutral regime and minimal liquidity mean this contract should be approached with significant caution.
Resolution rules
If exactly 3 governors lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLOSEREELECTIONGOV-2026-3 yes 100