Bruno Fernandes · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM
Bruno Fernandes is priced at 19¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 95¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 16 inside KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM.
Price history
19¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If Bruno Fernandes transfers out of Manchester United before Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Bruno Fernandes
Rank
#9 of 16
Leader
Antoine Griezmann 99¢
Range
1¢-99¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-BFER
May 24, 2026, 6:52 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
95¢
Reported volume
$472
Family rank
#9 of 16
16 outcomes · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM
Closes
Sep 15, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Bruno Fernandes transfers out of Manchester United before Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 15, 2026
Identifier
KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-BFER
Event family
KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Antoine Griezmann 99¢
Current share
—
Antoine Griezmann
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-AGRI
Leon Goretzka
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-LGOR
Mohammed Salah
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-MSAL
Robert Lewandowski
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-RLOW
Bernardo Silva
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-BSIL
Julian Brandt
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-JBRA
Bradley Barcola
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-BBAR
Mike Maignan
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-MMAG
Bruno Fernandes
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-BFER
Dusan Vlahovic
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-DVLA
Harry Kane
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-HKAN
Lionel Messi
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-LMES
Richarlison
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-RICH
Ruben Neves
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-RNEV
Dayot Upamecano
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-DUPA
Kobbie Mainoo
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-KMAI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 19% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.