Bruno Guimaraes · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM
Bruno Guimaraes is priced at 38¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 70¢ bid, 80¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM.
Price history
38¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
If Bruno Guimaraes transfers out of Newcastle before Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Bruno Guimaraes
Rank
#5 of 16
Leader
Leon Goretzka 98¢
Range
4¢-98¢
Family volume
$401
Identifier
KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-BGUI
Jul 14, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
70¢
Ask
80¢
Spread
10¢
24h volume
$201
Family rank
#5 of 16
16 outcomes · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM
Closes
Sep 15, 2026
Family volume
$401
Orderbook snapshot
70 / 80¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Bruno Guimaraes transfers out of Newcastle before Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 15, 2026
Identifier
KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-BGUI
Event family
KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$401
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Leon Goretzka 98¢
Current share
50%
Leon Goretzka
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-LGOR
Julian Brandt
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-JBRA
Mohammed Salah
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-MSAL
Dusan Vlahovic
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-DVLA
Bruno Guimaraes
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-BGUI
Bradley Barcola
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-BBAR
Richarlison
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-RICH
Scott McTominay
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-SMCT
Rodrygo
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-RODR
Ruben Neves
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-RNEV
Mike Maignan
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-MMAG
Bruno Fernandes
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-BFER
Dayot Upamecano
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-DUPA
Harry Kane
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-HKAN
Lionel Messi
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-LMES
Kobbie Mainoo
kalshi · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-KMAI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 38% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.