SimpleFunctions

Dusan Vlahovic · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM

Dusan Vlahovic is priced at 66¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 61¢ bid, 70¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM.

Price history

66¢ current

+14¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
May 1, 2026May 26, 2026

Contract brief

If Dusan Vlahovic transfers out of Juventus before Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Dusan Vlahovic

Rank

#7 of 16

Leader

Antoine Griezmann 99¢

Range

1¢-99¢

Family volume

$14

Identifier

KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-DVLA

May 27, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC · 9m ago

Implied probability

66¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC · 9m ago

Bid

61¢

Ask

70¢

Spread

Reported volume

$416

Family rank

#7 of 16

16 outcomes · KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM

Closes

Sep 15, 2026

Family volume

$14

Orderbook snapshot

61 / 70¢

Kalshi
9¢ spread
BidSize
100¢200
61¢1
60¢200
5¢1.5K
AskSize
70¢200
93¢359
95¢40
97¢20
98¢52

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Dusan Vlahovic transfers out of Juventus before Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Sep 15, 2026

Identifier

KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-DVLA

SF Signal
SF Index
257.95
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

210.9%

IY (No)

515.9%

Adj IY

258%

CRI

2

Overround

4.5%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.432

Observability

medium

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

210.9%
515.9%
Adj IY
258%
2
Overround
4.5%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Opinionanalysis

Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens

Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.