Will Edmundo González Urrutia be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
2 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
129 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026
Cluster 2
Will Nicolás Maduro be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Edmundo González Urrutia, Venezuela's opposition leader recognized by many countries, will hold the formal title of head of state by year-end 2026. At 26%, the market reflects significant uncertainty despite his recognition by numerous nations as the legitimate president. The current level reflects Nicolás Maduro's strong institutional control (priced at 62%) and his consolidation of state apparatus, offset against ongoing political pressure and international support for González. Key uncertainties include whether opposition movements can overcome security force loyalty to the incumbent regime, the trajectory of international diplomatic efforts, and potential negotiations that could reshape Venezuela's political landscape. The proximity to December 31, 2026—just eight months away—means limited time for major institutional shifts through conventional means, though political situations can change rapidly.
- ›Maduro maintains control of military, security forces, and state institutions as of May 2026, which markets price at higher probability (62%) than González succession
- ›Multiple international actors recognize González as legitimate president, but this hasn't translated to de facto control of Venezuelan territory or government functions
- ›González's probability sits roughly equal to Delcy Rodríguez (26%), suggesting market uncertainty about which opposition or alternative figure might emerge as head of state
- ›The eight-month timeframe requires either negotiated transition, electoral process, or significant institutional collapse—all low-probability events by December 2026
- ›Market pricing across related contracts shows Maduro most likely at year-end (62%) with remaining probability distributed among multiple alternatives rather than consolidated behind any single challenger
What moved the line
- Aug 19Nicolás Maduro↓4pp81→77¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Nicolás Maduro↑3pp78→81¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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