Before Nov 4, 2026 · Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before
Before Nov 4, 2026 is priced at 27¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 27¢ bid, 31¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before.
Price history
27¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Nov 4, 2026
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Before Nov 4, 2026 27¢
Range
1¢-27¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26NOV04
Jun 7, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
27¢
Ask
31¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before
Closes
Nov 4, 2026
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
27 / 31¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 4, 2026
Identifier
KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26NOV04
Event family
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Before Nov 4, 2026 27¢
Current share
99%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.