Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 33% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 33% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 464% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $14,285 in open interest, suggesting illiquidity is driving the distorted probability rather than genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 464% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $14,285 in open interest, suggesting illiquidity is driving the distorted probability rather than genuine market consensus. The 22¢ price implies Trump's approval will stay above 33% for the entire 13-month period, a notably bullish assumption given historical volatility and the 452% realized volatility metric indicating significant price swings. With 263 days to resolution and a 6¢ spread, this appears to be a low-liquidity trap where the extreme yield reflects the difficulty of trading rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 33%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-33 yes 100