Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 38% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 38% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. The market is pricing in a 71% probability that Trump's approval rating stays below 38% through end of 2026, with the price rising 7 cents over the past week, suggesting growing confidence in the sub-38% outcome.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 71% probability that Trump's approval rating stays below 38% through end of 2026, with the price rising 7 cents over the past week, suggesting growing confidence in the sub-38% outcome. The No side offers an unusually attractive 336.6% implied yield compared to just 56.1% for Yes, indicating the market may be underpricing the risk of approval ratings rebounding above 38% during this period. With only $10 in 24-hour volume against $6,918 open interest and 266 days to expiry, liquidity is thin, making the tight 1¢ spread somewhat misleading about true execution depth.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 38%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-38 yes 100