Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 35% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?

Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 35% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. The Yes side offers an exceptionally high 215% implied yield, suggesting the market may be underpricing the probability of Trump's approval falling below 35% given historical volatility patterns and the neutral regime.

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43¢

Bid/Ask 42/48¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $395.79·OI $16,614.37·Closes Jan 7, 2027·252d remaining

KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-35

7-day price380 snapshots · 13 regime

58¢42¢ current

Apr 832¢Apr 30

Analysis

13d ago

The Yes side offers an exceptionally high 215% implied yield, suggesting the market may be underpricing the probability of Trump's approval falling below 35% given historical volatility patterns and the neutral regime. With only $477.81 in 24-hour volume against $15,884.86 open interest, liquidity is thin relative to positions held, creating potential slippage risk for larger trades. The 318% realized volatility and sharp 4-cent price rise over seven days indicate elevated uncertainty, though the 2-cent spread remains tight and the 265-day timeframe provides substantial room for approval data accumulation before the Dec 2026 resolution window.

Resolution rules

If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 35%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 199.9%

IY (No) 104.8%

Adj IY 171%

CRI 1

RV 400%

VR 2.80

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	199.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	104.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	171%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	400%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.80	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	16.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	2.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.14	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Computed

4/30/2026, 9:22:27 AM

SF edge 16.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +16¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 9:23:14 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-35 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →