SimpleFunctions

Iowa · KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26

Iowa is priced at 26¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 22¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26.

Price history

26¢ current

+17¢
10¢20¢30¢
Aug 21, 2026Sep 19, 2026

Contract brief

If Iowa is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Iowa

Rank

#12 of 16

Leader

Indiana 74¢

Range

1¢-74¢

Family volume

$19K

Identifier

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-IOWA

Sep 21, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 26m ago

Implied probability

26¢
Latest venue quote
Sep 21, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 26m ago

Bid

22¢

Ask

26¢

Spread

24h volume

$651

Family rank

#12 of 16

16 outcomes · KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26

Closes

Dec 29, 2026

Family volume

$19K

Orderbook snapshot

22 / 26¢

Kalshi
4¢ spread
BidSize
22¢18
21¢5
19¢28
18¢29
17¢38
AskSize
26¢622
29¢250
30¢224
40¢131
41¢90

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Iowa is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 29, 2026

Identifier

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-IOWA

SF Signal
SF Index
1226.53
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

2453.1%

IY (No)

54.8%

Adj IY

1227%

CRI

7

Overround

10.0%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

low

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

2453.1%
54.8%
Adj IY
1227%
7
Overround
10.0%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.