Will Ohio St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
18 contracts
Closes
Dec 29, 2026
184 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will Arizona” vs “Will Penn St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Arizona
Cluster 2
Will Penn St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Penn St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Penn St.
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-PSU
Cluster 3
Will South Carolina qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will South Carolina qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: South Carolina
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-SCAR
Cluster 4
Will Texas A&M qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Texas A&M qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Texas A&M
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-TXAM
Cluster 5
Will Oklahoma qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Oklahoma qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Oklahoma
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-OKLA
Cluster 6
Will California qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will California qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: California
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-CAL
Cluster 7
Will Alabama qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Alabama qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Alabama
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-ALA
Cluster 8
Will Washington qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Washington qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Washington
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-WASH
Cluster 9
Will Tennessee qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Tennessee qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Tennessee
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-TENN
Cluster 10
Will Notre Dame qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Notre Dame qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Notre Dame
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-ND
Cluster 11
Will Texas qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Texas qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Texas
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-TEX
Cluster 12
Will Auburn qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Auburn qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Auburn
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-AUB
Cluster 13
Will LSU qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will LSU qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: LSU
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-LSU
Cluster 14
Will Virginia qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Virginia qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Virginia
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-UVA
Cluster 15
Will Ole Miss qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Ole Miss qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Ole Miss
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MISS
Cluster 16
Will BYU qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will BYU qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: BYU
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-BYU
Cluster 17
Will Clemson qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Clemson qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Clemson
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-CLEM
Analysis
This 26% probability reflects the likelihood that Ohio State football will secure one of the four spots in the College Football Playoff this season. The rating appears conservative given Ohio State's historical strength and resources, likely reflecting uncertainty about the team's specific roster composition, coaching adjustments, and the competitive quality of the Big Ten conference in 2026. The primary driver of this probability will be the team's performance during the regular season, particularly in high-profile matchups and the conference championship. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty is the completion of the regular season (typically November-December 2026) and the subsequent playoff selection announcement, which will definitively determine whether Ohio State finished among the nation's top four teams.
- ›Ohio State's win-loss record and strength of schedule relative to other Power Four conferences through the 2026 regular season
- ›Head-to-head performance against top-ranked opponents, especially within the Big Ten, which will significantly influence playoff committee rankings
- ›Conference championship outcomes and whether Ohio State wins or loses the Big Ten title game in December 2026
- ›Injury status of key players and coaching staff continuity heading into and through the season
- ›Relative performance of other potential playoff contenders, as selection is comparative rather than absolute
What moved the line
- Jun 25Tennessee↑7pp13→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Texas A&M↑6pp29→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Texas↓6pp64→58¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Texas↑5pp55→60¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24South Carolina↓4pp9→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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