Will Ohio St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$997
20 contracts
Closes
Dec 29, 2026
234 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Will Georgia” vs “Will Notre Dame qualify for the College Football Playoffs”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Georgia
Cluster 2
Will Notre Dame qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Notre Dame qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Notre Dame
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-ND
Cluster 3
Will Virginia Tech qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Virginia Tech qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Virginia Tech
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-VT
Cluster 4
Will Ohio St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Ohio St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Ohio St.
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-OSU
Cluster 5
Will Texas qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Texas qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Texas
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-TEX
Cluster 6
Will LSU qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will LSU qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: LSU
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-LSU
Cluster 7
Will Michigan qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Michigan qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Michigan
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH
Cluster 8
Will Iowa qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Iowa qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Iowa
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-IOWA
Cluster 9
Will Utah qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Utah qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Utah
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-UTAH
Cluster 10
Will Oklahoma qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Oklahoma qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Oklahoma
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-OKLA
Cluster 11
Will Louisville qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Louisville qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Louisville
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-LOU
Cluster 12
Will Indiana qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Indiana qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Indiana
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-IND
Cluster 13
Will Oregon qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Oregon qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Oregon
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-ORE
Cluster 14
Will Texas Tech qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Texas Tech qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Texas Tech
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-TTU
Cluster 15
Will Texas A&M qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Texas A&M qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Texas A&M
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-TXAM
Cluster 16
Will Miami (FL) qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Miami (FL) qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Miami (FL)
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MIA
Cluster 17
Will Alabama qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Alabama qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Alabama
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-ALA
Cluster 18
Will USC qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will USC qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: USC
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-USC
Cluster 19
Will Ole Miss qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Will Ole Miss qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Ole Miss
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MISS
Analysis
This 26% probability reflects the likelihood that Ohio State football will secure one of the four spots in the College Football Playoff this season. The rating appears conservative given Ohio State's historical strength and resources, likely reflecting uncertainty about the team's specific roster composition, coaching adjustments, and the competitive quality of the Big Ten conference in 2026. The primary driver of this probability will be the team's performance during the regular season, particularly in high-profile matchups and the conference championship. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty is the completion of the regular season (typically November-December 2026) and the subsequent playoff selection announcement, which will definitively determine whether Ohio State finished among the nation's top four teams.
- ›Ohio State's win-loss record and strength of schedule relative to other Power Four conferences through the 2026 regular season
- ›Head-to-head performance against top-ranked opponents, especially within the Big Ten, which will significantly influence playoff committee rankings
- ›Conference championship outcomes and whether Ohio State wins or loses the Big Ten title game in December 2026
- ›Injury status of key players and coaching staff continuity heading into and through the season
- ›Relative performance of other potential playoff contenders, as selection is comparative rather than absolute
What moved the line
- May 7Ohio St.↓26pp67→41¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Ohio St.↑14pp53→67¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Ohio St.↑9pp40→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Utah↑6pp14→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Iowa↑5pp8→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.