SimpleFunctions

Jamieson Greer · KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31

Jamieson Greer is priced at 17¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 16¢ bid, 17¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31.

Price history

17¢ current

10¢15¢20¢
Jun 16, 2026Jul 11, 2026

Contract brief

If Jamieson Greer leaves as United States Trade Representative before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Jamieson Greer

Rank

#12 of 16

Leader

Todd Blanche 66¢

Range

13¢-66¢

Family volume

$56K

Identifier

KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-JGRE

Jul 13, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 59m ago

Implied probability

17¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 13, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 59m ago

Bid

16¢

Ask

17¢

Spread

Reported volume

$3K

Family rank

#12 of 16

16 outcomes · KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$56K

Orderbook snapshot

16 / 17¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
16¢264
13¢1.3K
12¢22
9¢100
4¢1
AskSize
17¢332
18¢5
20¢1.0K
35¢48
36¢925

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Jamieson Greer leaves as United States Trade Representative before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-JGRE

SF Signal
SF Index
555.72
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1111.4%

IY (No)

40.3%

Adj IY

556%

CRI

5

Overround

7.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.432

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

1111.4%
40.3%
Adj IY
556%
5
Overround
7.2%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.