SimpleFunctions
KalshiJan 1, 2027243 days left

Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027?

This contract is priced at 70¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 69¢ bid, 70¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

70¢
$691K volume
$282K liquidity
2324% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$30K

Best sibling

Karoline Leavitt 41¢

Ticker

KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-KPAT

Price history

70¢ current

+2¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 8, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

69 / 70¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
69¢448
68¢283
67¢671
66¢1.6K
65¢2.3K
AskSize
70¢1
71¢297
72¢727
73¢1.1K
74¢2

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Kash Patel leaves as Director of the FBI before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-KPAT

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

67.5%

IY (No)

334.4%

Adj IY

330%

CRI

2

RV

223%

VR

2.74

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

67.5%
334.4%
Adj IY
330%
2
RV
223%
VR
2.74
IAR
1.1/h
Overround
8.4%
LAS
0.01

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