SimpleFunctions
KalshiJan 1, 2027243 days left

Will Susie WIles leaves Chief of Staff in before 2027?

This contract is priced at 32¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 31¢ bid, 32¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

32¢
$112K volume
$48K liquidity
528% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$21K

Best sibling

Kash Patel 69¢

Ticker

KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SWIL

Price history

32¢ current

7¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 8, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

31 / 32¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
31¢59
30¢9
29¢122
28¢850
27¢506
AskSize
32¢334
33¢35
34¢51
35¢500
36¢1.0K

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Susie WIles leaves as Chief of Staff before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SWIL

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

334.4%

IY (No)

67.5%

Adj IY

162%

CRI

2

Overround

8.4%

LAS

0.03

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

334.4%
67.5%
Adj IY
162%
2
Overround
8.4%
LAS
0.03

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Opinionanalysis

Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens

Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.

Blogtech

MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket

Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index