Michelle Bolsonaro · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3
Michelle Bolsonaro is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 7 inside KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3.
Price history
3¢ current
Contract brief
If Michelle Bolsonaro finishes in 3rd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Michelle Bolsonaro
Rank
#7 of 7
Leader
Renan Santos 55¢
Range
3¢-55¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-MBOL
Jun 23, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$200
Family rank
#7 of 7
7 outcomes · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Michelle Bolsonaro finishes in 3rd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
Identifier
KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-MBOL
Event family
KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Renan Santos 55¢
Current share
0%
Renan Santos
kalshi · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-RSAN
Flávio Bolsonaro
kalshi · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-FBOL
Romeu Zema
kalshi · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-RZEM
Ronaldo Caiado
kalshi · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-RCAI
Eduardo Bolsonaro
kalshi · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-EBOL
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
kalshi · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-LSIL
Michelle Bolsonaro
kalshi · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-MBOL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.