Will Michael Trigg be the 3rd Tight End drafted
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$16K
20 contracts
Top contract
15¢
$12K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Michael” vs “Who will be”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Michael
Will Michael Thurmond be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?: Michael Thurmond
KXGOVGANOMD-26-MT
Will Michael Jackson be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026?: Michael Jackson
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUN01-MIC
Will Michael Jackson be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in May 2026?: Michael Jackson
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26JUN01-MIC
Will Michael Echols be the Republican nominee for LA-05?: Michael Echols
KXLAPRIMARY-05R26-MECH
Will Michael Bennet be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Colorado?: Michael Bennet
KXGOVCONOMD-26-MBEN
Will Michael Barkley advance in the 2026 CA-05 primary?: Michael Barkley
KXCAPRIMARY-0526-MBAR
Cluster 2
Who will be
Cluster 3
Will Tyrese Maxey be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team
Will Tyrese Maxey be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team?: Tyrese Maxey
KXNBA3RDTEAM-26-TMAX
Cluster 4
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Michael Olise
KXBALLONDOR-26-MOLI
Cluster 5
Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina
Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Michael Whatley
SENATENC-26-R
Cluster 6
Will Xavier Becerra finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Cluster 7
Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 8
Will Jalen Duren be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team
Will Jalen Duren be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team?: Jalen Duren
KXNBA3RDTEAM-26-JDUR
Cluster 9
Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Tom Steyer
KXCAGOV3RD-26JUN02-3-TSTE
Cluster 10
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 11
Will Karl-Anthony Towns be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team
Cluster 12
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2029
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2029?: any 3rd Amendment case
KXSCOTUSCERT3RD-29JAN-3RD
Cluster 13
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 14
Will Jaylen Brown be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team
Will Jaylen Brown be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team?: Jaylen Brown
KXNBA3RDTEAM-26-JBRO
What moved the line
- May 2Tyrese Maxey↓26pp60→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Michael Jackson↑14pp14→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Tyrese Maxey↓11pp34→23¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Michael Thurmond↑8pp4→12¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Tom Steyer↑8pp15→23¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.