Will Michael Trigg be the 3rd Tight End drafted
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$15K
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
942 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 15% of their title tokens — “Will Michael Bennet be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Colorado” vs “Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Michael Bennet be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Colorado
Will Michael Bennet be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Colorado?: Michael Bennet
KXGOVCONOMD-26-MBEN
Cluster 2
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Michael Olise
KXBALLONDOR-26-MOLI
Cluster 3
Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 4
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2029
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2029?: any 3rd Amendment case
KXSCOTUSCERT3RD-29JAN-3RD
Cluster 5
Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina
Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Michael Whatley
SENATENC-26-R
Cluster 6
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 7
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 21% probability that Michael Trigg will be selected as the third tight end in an upcoming draft. The current market price reflects uncertainty about his draft positioning relative to other tight end prospects. Key drivers of this probability include his performance metrics compared to other top tight end prospects, team needs and draft capital allocation at the tight end position, and pre-draft evaluations from professional scouts. The primary resolution point will be the actual draft results, which determine the final order of tight end selections and confirm whether Trigg finishes exactly third among all players at his position selected.
- ›Trigg's performance statistics and athletic measurements compared to primary tight end competitors (measurables drive draft order)
- ›The number of teams selecting tight ends before the draft point where Trigg is expected to go (affects how many tight ends are already drafted)
- ›Pre-draft ranking consensus from major scouting services and mock drafts (indicates professional consensus on his tight end ranking)
- ›Team draft strategy and tight end depth chart needs of franchises holding early picks (determines actual selection behavior)
- ›Injury status and performance changes for competing tight end prospects between now and draft day (alters relative evaluations)
What moved the line
- Jun 23Michael Bennet↑5pp69→74¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Michael Bennet↑3pp66→69¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Michael Bennet↓3pp69→66¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Michael Olise↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Renan Santos↑3pp49→52¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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