Will Michael Trigg be the 3rd Tight End drafted
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$190
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
901 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina” vs “Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina
Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Michael Whatley
SENATENC-26-R
Cluster 2
Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 3
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 4
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2029
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2029?: any 3rd Amendment case
KXSCOTUSCERT3RD-29JAN-3RD
Cluster 5
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 21% probability that Michael Trigg will be selected as the third tight end in an upcoming draft. The current market price reflects uncertainty about his draft positioning relative to other tight end prospects. Key drivers of this probability include his performance metrics compared to other top tight end prospects, team needs and draft capital allocation at the tight end position, and pre-draft evaluations from professional scouts. The primary resolution point will be the actual draft results, which determine the final order of tight end selections and confirm whether Trigg finishes exactly third among all players at his position selected.
- ›Trigg's performance statistics and athletic measurements compared to primary tight end competitors (measurables drive draft order)
- ›The number of teams selecting tight ends before the draft point where Trigg is expected to go (affects how many tight ends are already drafted)
- ›Pre-draft ranking consensus from major scouting services and mock drafts (indicates professional consensus on his tight end ranking)
- ›Team draft strategy and tight end depth chart needs of franchises holding early picks (determines actual selection behavior)
- ›Injury status and performance changes for competing tight end prospects between now and draft day (alters relative evaluations)
What moved the line
- Jul 29Renan Santos↓3pp58→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 29Ronaldo Caiado↑3pp16→19¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026last 89% · 1d
- Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.70last 97% · 2d
- Will Donald Trump endorse Russell Fry in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race before Aug 11, 2026last 95% · 3d
- Will Trump say "Airbnb / ABNB" before Aug 1, 2026last 6% · 4d
- Will Donald Trump pardon between 3 and 9 people before May 1, 2026last 27% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.