Will Michael Trigg be the 3rd Tight End drafted
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
851 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina” vs “Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina
Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Michael Whatley
SENATENC-26-R
Cluster 2
Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 3
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 4
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2029
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2029?: any 3rd Amendment case
KXSCOTUSCERT3RD-29JAN-3RD
Cluster 5
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Analysis
This market estimates a 13% chance that Michael Trigg will be selected as the third tight end off the board in the 2026 NFL Draft. The probability reflects forecasts about draft positioning based on Trigg's performance trajectory, team needs, and how other tight end prospects develop. The market would move higher if Trigg demonstrates elite production in pre-draft evaluations or if other competing tight ends underperform, and lower if additional prospects establish themselves as top-tier options. The primary resolution event will occur during the 2026 NFL Draft when teams make their tight end selections in sequence. Current pricing suggests moderate conviction that other tight ends will be drafted ahead of Trigg, though substantial uncertainty remains about how scouts and general managers will ultimately rank the position class.
- ›Trigg's on-field performance metrics (yards, touchdowns, blocking efficiency) compared to other prospect tight ends through the 2025 college season
- ›How many tight ends are selected in the first two rounds before Trigg, which directly determines his draft-order position
- ›Performance of competing tight end prospects in bowl games, combine workouts, and draft evaluations leading up to April 2026
- ›Team draft capital and expressed need at tight end among clubs selecting in rounds 1-3
- ›Changes to Trigg's draft stock following injury, performance decline, or off-field developments that alter evaluator consensus
What moved the line
- Sep 18Renan Santos↑27pp23→50¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Renan Santos↓13pp36→23¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Renan Santos↓7pp50→43¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Ronaldo Caiado↑6pp4→10¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Michael Whatley↓3pp9→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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