Renan Santos · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3
Renan Santos is priced at 33¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 81¢ ask, 76¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 7 inside KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3.
Price history
33¢ current
+31¢Contract brief
If Renan Santos finishes in 3rd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Renan Santos
Rank
#5 of 7
Leader
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 19¢
Range
2¢-19¢
Family volume
$296
Identifier
KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-RSAN
Jun 24, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
81¢
Spread
76¢
24h volume
$236
Family rank
#5 of 7
7 outcomes · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
Family volume
$296
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 81¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Renan Santos finishes in 3rd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
Identifier
KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-RSAN
Event family
KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$296
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 19¢
Current share
80%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
kalshi · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-LSIL
Flávio Bolsonaro
kalshi · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-FBOL
Romeu Zema
kalshi · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-RZEM
Eduardo Bolsonaro
kalshi · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-EBOL
Renan Santos
kalshi · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-RSAN
Michelle Bolsonaro
kalshi · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-MBOL
Ronaldo Caiado
kalshi · KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-RCAI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 33% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.