Miguel Vargas · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL
Miguel Vargas is priced at 59¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 59¢ bid, 95¢ ask, 36¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL.
Price history
59¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If Miguel Vargas is selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball American League All-Star Team, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Miguel Vargas
Rank
#4 of 16
Leader
Ernie Clement 97¢
Range
1¢-97¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-MVARGAS20
Jun 26, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
59¢
Ask
95¢
Spread
36¢
24h volume
$12
Family rank
#4 of 16
16 outcomes · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL
Closes
Jul 15, 2026
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
59 / 95¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Miguel Vargas is selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball American League All-Star Team, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 15, 2026
Identifier
KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-MVARGAS20
Event family
KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Ernie Clement 97¢
Current share
1%
Ernie Clement
kalshi · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-ECLEMENT22
Aaron Judge
kalshi · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-AJUDGE99
Travis Bazzana
kalshi · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-TBAZZANA37
Miguel Vargas
kalshi · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-MVARGAS20
Joe Ryan
kalshi · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-JRYAN41
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
kalshi · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-VGUERRERO27
Kevin McGonigle
kalshi · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-KMCGONIGLE85
Riley Greene
kalshi · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-RGREENE31
José Ramírez
kalshi · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-JRAMREZ11
Mike Trout
kalshi · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-MTROUT27
Randy Arozarena
kalshi · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-RAROZARENA56
Max Scherzer
kalshi · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-MSCHERZER31
Gleyber Torres
kalshi · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-GTORRES25
Ryan O'Hearn
kalshi · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-ROHEARN29
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
kalshi · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-JCHISHOLM13
Munetaka Murakami
kalshi · KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-MMURAKAMI5
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.