Will Ben Rice be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 61% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
61%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11K
19 contracts
Closes
Jul 15, 2026
21 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Louis Varland be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team
Will Louis Varland be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team?: Louis Varland
KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-LVARLAND77
Cluster 2
Will Nick Kurtz be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team
Will Nick Kurtz be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team?: Nick Kurtz
KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-NKURTZ16
Cluster 3
Will Chase Burns be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team
Will Chase Burns be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team?: Chase Burns
KXMLBALLSTAR-26NL-CBURNS26
Cluster 4
Will Kyle Schwarber be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team
Will Kyle Schwarber be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team?: Kyle Schwarber
KXMLBALLSTAR-26NL-KSCHWARBER12
Cluster 5
Will Yordan Alvarez be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team
Will Yordan Alvarez be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team?: Yordan Alvarez
KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-YALVAREZ44
Cluster 6
Will Kevin McGonigle be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team
Will Kevin McGonigle be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team?: Kevin McGonigle
KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-KMCGONIGLE85
Cluster 7
Will Cam Schlittler be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team
Will Cam Schlittler be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team?: Cam Schlittler
KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-CSCHLITTLER31
Cluster 8
Will Byron Buxton be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team
Will Byron Buxton be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team?: Byron Buxton
KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-BBUXTON25
Cluster 9
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team?: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
KXMLBALLSTAR-26NL-YYAMAMOTO18
Cluster 10
Will Shea Langeliers be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team
Will Shea Langeliers be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team?: Shea Langeliers
KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-SLANGELIERS23
Cluster 11
Will Riley O'Brien be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team
Will Riley O'Brien be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team?: Riley O'Brien
KXMLBALLSTAR-26NL-ROBRIEN61
Cluster 12
Will Freddie Freeman be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team
Will Freddie Freeman be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team?: Freddie Freeman
KXMLBALLSTAR-26NL-FFREEMAN5
Cluster 13
Will Travis Bazzana be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team
Will Travis Bazzana be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team?: Travis Bazzana
KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-TBAZZANA37
Cluster 14
Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team
Cluster 15
Will Randy Arozarena be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team
Will Randy Arozarena be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team?: Randy Arozarena
KXMLBALLSTAR-26AL-RAROZARENA56
Cluster 16
Will Corbin Carroll be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team
Will Corbin Carroll be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team?: Corbin Carroll
KXMLBALLSTAR-26NL-CCARROLL7
Cluster 17
Will Michael Harris be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team
Will Michael Harris be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team?: Michael Harris
KXMLBALLSTAR-26NL-MHARRIS23
Cluster 18
Will Casey Schmitt be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team
Will Casey Schmitt be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team?: Casey Schmitt
KXMLBALLSTAR-26NL-CSCHMITT10
Cluster 19
Will Liam Hicks be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team
Will Liam Hicks be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team?: Liam Hicks
KXMLBALLSTAR-26NL-LHICKS34
Analysis
This represents an assessment that Ben Rice has a roughly two-in-three chance of being selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team. The probability reflects Rice's performance through the first half of the season and how his statistics compare to other AL designated hitters and backup catchers. All-Star selection depends on fan voting, player voting, and manager selections, weighted across these categories. The current level suggests Rice is positioned as a solid candidate but faces competition from established names. The main driver would be Rice's performance metrics—batting average, home runs, and overall offensive production—relative to other eligible AL players. The All-Star voting results, typically revealed in early July, will definitively resolve this market, making mid-season statistical accumulation the key factor before that announcement.
- ›Ben Rice's batting average, home run total, and RBI count through early-to-mid June compared to other AL catchers and DH candidates
- ›Fan voting patterns, which typically favor established stars and high-profile teams over newer or less familiar players
- ›Manager and player voting preferences, which can shift outcomes for borderline candidates depending on positional needs
- ›Competition level from other AL catchers and DH-eligible players—stronger competition from others would lower Rice's probability
- ›The official All-Star voting deadline and selection announcement, scheduled for early July, which will resolve the market with certainty
What moved the line
- Jun 24Riley O'Brien↓66pp71→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Louis Varland↓41pp83→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Cam Schlittler↓41pp86→45¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Cam Schlittler↑40pp57→97¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Riley O'Brien↑40pp5→45¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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