Will Penn St. go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Penn St. go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing December 28, 2026. The 2238% implied yield on the Yes side reflects an extremely asymmetric risk profile typical of long-shot binary events, though the modest $507.44 open interest and $10.44 daily volume suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings.
Analysis
The 2238% implied yield on the Yes side reflects an extremely asymmetric risk profile typical of long-shot binary events, though the modest $507.44 open interest and $10.44 daily volume suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. At 9¢, the market is pricing Penn State's undefeated regular season probability at just 9%, which aligns with historical difficulty (only two teams have gone undefeated since 2000), though the 3¢ spread indicates reasonable two-sided interest. With 255 days until expiration, there's substantial time for Penn State's actual performance to reshape pricing, though the neutral regime score suggests current sentiment isn't being driven by recent momentum.
Resolution rules
If Penn St. goes undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-PSU yes 100