Will Texas Tech go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?
Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Will Texas Tech go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?. This contract trades at 40¢ on Kalshi, closing December 28, 2026. The 37¢ price reflects a modest 37% probability of an undefeated regular season for Texas Tech, with notably asymmetric payouts—the Yes side offers a 243% implied yield versus 84% for No, indicating the market prices in substantial uncertainty around this outcome.
Analysis
The 37¢ price reflects a modest 37% probability of an undefeated regular season for Texas Tech, with notably asymmetric payouts—the Yes side offers a 243% implied yield versus 84% for No, indicating the market prices in substantial uncertainty around this outcome. With $54,909 in open interest but only $30 in 24-hour volume and a tight 3¢ spread, liquidity is concentrated but thin, suggesting limited recent trading activity despite 256 days to expiration. The neutral regime score and minimal 1¢ price movement over seven days suggest the market has stabilized, though the high implied yield on the Yes side warrants caution about potential tail risks to an undefeated season.
Resolution rules
If Texas Tech goes undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26-TTU yes 100