Sanae Takaichi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01
Sanae Takaichi is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #14 of 16 inside KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01.
Price history
10¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If Sanae Takaichi has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of Japan or has actually left Prime Minister of Japan before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Sanae Takaichi
Rank
#14 of 16
Leader
Gustavo Petro 94¢
Range
4¢-94¢
Family volume
$16K
Identifier
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-STAKJAP
Jun 26, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$99
Family rank
#14 of 16
16 outcomes · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
Family volume
$16K
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Sanae Takaichi has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of Japan or has actually left Prime Minister of Japan before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
Identifier
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-STAKJAP
Event family
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$16K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Gustavo Petro 94¢
Current share
1%
Gustavo Petro
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-GPETCOL
Miguel Díaz-Canel
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
Aleksandar Vučić
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-AVUCPSER
Benjamin Netanyahu
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-BNETISR
Christopher Luxon
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-PLUXPMNZ
Delcy Rodriguez
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-DRODAPRE
Ramzan Kadyrov
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-RKADCHEC
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VZELUKR
Friedrich Merz
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-FMERCGER
Cyril Ramaphosa
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-CRAMSAFR
Vladimir Putin
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
Emmanuel Macron
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-EMACFRA
Ahmad al-Sharaa
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-AALSSYR
Sanae Takaichi
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-STAKJAP
Daniel Noboa
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-DNOBECUA
Claudia Sheinbaum
kalshi · KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-CSHEPMEX
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.