Will Todd Blanche leaves Deputy Attorney General in before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$25K
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
99 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027
Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?: Pete Hegseth
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-PHEG
Cluster 2
Will Marco Rubio leaves Secretary of State in before 2027
Will Marco Rubio leaves Secretary of State in before 2027?: Marco Rubio
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-MRUB
Cluster 3
Will Mehmet Oz leaves CMS Administrator in before 2027
Will Mehmet Oz leaves CMS Administrator in before 2027?: Mehmet Oz
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-MOZ
Cluster 4
Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027
Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027?: Kash Patel
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-KPAT
Cluster 5
Will Scott Bessent leaves Secretary of the Treasury in before 2027
Will Scott Bessent leaves Secretary of the Treasury in before 2027?: Scott Bessent
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SBES
Cluster 6
Will Stephen Miller leaves Deputy Chief of Staff in before 2027
Will Stephen Miller leaves Deputy Chief of Staff in before 2027?: Stephen Miller
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SMIL
Cluster 7
Will Chris Wright leaves Secretary of Energy in before 2027
Will Chris Wright leaves Secretary of Energy in before 2027?: Chris Wright
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-CWRI
Cluster 8
Will Susie WIles leaves Chief of Staff in before 2027
Will Susie WIles leaves Chief of Staff in before 2027?: Susie Wiles
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SWIL
Cluster 9
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves HHS Secretary in before 2027
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves HHS Secretary in before 2027?: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-RFK
Cluster 10
Will Doug Collins leaves Secretary of Veterans Affairs in before 2027
Will Doug Collins leaves Secretary of Veterans Affairs in before 2027?: Doug Collins
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-DCOL
Cluster 11
Will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027
Will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027?: Howard Lutnick
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-HLUT
Cluster 12
Will Amy Gleason leaves Acting Administrator of the US DOGE Service in before 2027
Cluster 13
Will Steve Witkoff leaves Special Envoy to the Middle East in before 2027
Cluster 14
Will Lee Zeldin leaves EPA Administrator in before 2027
Will Lee Zeldin leaves EPA Administrator in before 2027?: Lee Zeldin
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-LZEL
Cluster 15
Will Kelly Loeffler leaves Administrator of the Small Business Administration in before 2027
Cluster 16
Will Sean Duffy leaves Secretary of Transportation in before 2027
Will Sean Duffy leaves Secretary of Transportation in before 2027?: Sean Duffy
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SDUF
Cluster 17
Will Bill Pulte leaves FHFA Director in before 2027
Will Bill Pulte leaves FHFA Director in before 2027?: Bill Pulte
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-BPUL
Cluster 18
Will Mike Huckabee leaves Ambassador to Israel in before 2027
Will Mike Huckabee leaves Ambassador to Israel in before 2027?: Mike Huckabee
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-MHUC
Cluster 19
Will Jamieson Greer leaves United States Trade Representative in before 2027
Cluster 20
Will Brooke Rollins leaves Secretary of Agriculture in before 2027
Will Brooke Rollins leaves Secretary of Agriculture in before 2027?: Brooke Rollins
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-BROL
Analysis
This market estimates a 29% chance that Todd Blanche, currently serving as Deputy Attorney General, will leave the position before the end of 2026. Blanche's tenure depends on several factors including his relationship with leadership, departmental stability, and ongoing policy priorities. The relatively low probability reflects that he has maintained his position through mid-2026 despite typical turnover in executive roles. Key drivers would include significant DOJ scandals, personnel conflicts, or major policy shifts that might prompt resignation or removal. The most concrete resolution point would be any official announcement of his departure or the transition to a new administration in January 2027, though departures could occur at any time given the discretionary nature of executive appointments.
- ›Blanche has served approximately 18 months in the role as of July 2026, suggesting some stability in the position relative to typical executive tenure
- ›Market comparison data shows higher departure probabilities for other cabinet-level officials (Kash Patel at 51%, Amy Gleason at 59%), positioning Blanche as more stable than some peers
- ›The 29% probability implies roughly 3-in-10 odds of departure, which is higher than random attrition but suggests markets view him as reasonably entrenched
- ›No public reporting of imminent resignation or conflict appears priced into the market
- ›The market resolves in approximately 6 months, providing limited runway for unforeseeable personnel changes
What moved the line
- Sep 23Chris Wright↓10pp16→6¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Doug Collins↓10pp21→11¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Amy Gleason↑9pp22→31¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23Pete Hegseth↓7pp33→26¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23Kash Patel↓7pp23→16¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will any NVIDIA representative say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026last 95% · 0d
- Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%last 97% · 5d
- Will Barack Obama endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026last 83% · 7d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 11d
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 11d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.