Will Todd Blanche leaves Deputy Attorney General in before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+9pp
13h ago
24h volume
$30K
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
243 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 27% of their title tokens — “Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027” vs “Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027
Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027?: Kash Patel
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-KPAT
Cluster 2
Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027
Cluster 3
Will Susie WIles leaves Chief of Staff in before 2027
Will Susie WIles leaves Chief of Staff in before 2027?: Susie Wiles
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SWIL
Cluster 4
Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027
Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?: Pete Hegseth
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-PHEG
Cluster 5
Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence in before 2027
Cluster 6
Will Lee Zeldin leaves EPA Administrator in before 2027
Will Lee Zeldin leaves EPA Administrator in before 2027?: Lee Zeldin
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-LZEL
Cluster 7
Will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027
Will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027?: Howard Lutnick
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-HLUT
Cluster 8
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves HHS Secretary in before 2027
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves HHS Secretary in before 2027?: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-RFK
Cluster 9
Will Mehmet Oz leaves CMS Administrator in before 2027
Will Mehmet Oz leaves CMS Administrator in before 2027?: Mehmet Oz
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-MOZ
Cluster 10
Will Mike Huckabee leaves Ambassador to Israel in before 2027
Will Mike Huckabee leaves Ambassador to Israel in before 2027?: Mike Huckabee
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-MHUC
Cluster 11
Will Marco Rubio leaves Secretary of State in before 2027
Will Marco Rubio leaves Secretary of State in before 2027?: Marco Rubio
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-MRUB
Cluster 12
Will Todd Blanche leaves Deputy Attorney General in before 2027
Will Todd Blanche leaves Deputy Attorney General in before 2027?: Todd Blanche
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-TBLA
Cluster 13
Will Steve Witkoff leaves Special Envoy to the Middle East in before 2027
Cluster 14
Will Amy Gleason leaves Acting Administrator of the US DOGE Service in before 2027
Cluster 15
Will Stephen Miller leaves Deputy Chief of Staff in before 2027
Will Stephen Miller leaves Deputy Chief of Staff in before 2027?: Stephen Miller
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SMIL
Cluster 16
Will Tom Homan leaves White House Border Czar in before 2027
Will Tom Homan leaves White House Border Czar in before 2027?: Tom Homan
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-THOM
Cluster 17
Will Sean Duffy leaves Secretary of Transportation in before 2027
Will Sean Duffy leaves Secretary of Transportation in before 2027?: Sean Duffy
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SDUF
Cluster 18
Will John Ratcliffe leaves Director of the CIA in before 2027
Will John Ratcliffe leaves Director of the CIA in before 2027?: John Ratcliffe
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-JRAT
Cluster 19
Will Scott Bessent leaves Secretary of the Treasury in before 2027
Will Scott Bessent leaves Secretary of the Treasury in before 2027?: Scott Bessent
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SBES
Cluster 20
Will Brooke Rollins leaves Secretary of Agriculture in before 2027
Will Brooke Rollins leaves Secretary of Agriculture in before 2027?: Brooke Rollins
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-BROL
Analysis
This market estimates a 26% probability that Todd Blanche leaves his position as Deputy Attorney General before the end of 2026. Blanche was confirmed as DAG in early 2025 under the Trump administration. The relatively low probability suggests markets view his departure as unlikely this year, though related uncertainty around other DOJ personnel—particularly FBI Director Kash Patel's potential exit—may influence perceptions of broader DOJ stability. Movement in this market would likely correlate with changes in Trump administration policy priorities, confirmation battles, or significant personnel shifts elsewhere in the department. The market reflects baseline expectation that cabinet-level positions typically see limited turnover within their first year, though political transitions can accelerate unexpected departures.
- ›Blanche's confirmation status and time served: He was confirmed as DAG in early 2025, suggesting typical tenure expectations before natural exit points like 2028
- ›Correlation with other DOJ departures: Related markets show elevated departure probabilities for Kash Patel (69% before 2027), which could indicate broader DOJ instability concerns
- ›Historical cabinet turnover rates: DAG positions typically experience low first-year departure rates absent major scandals or policy shifts
- ›Market activity concentration: High volume on related FBI director contracts suggests the 26% may be influenced by adjacent uncertainty rather than Blanche-specific factors
- ›Trump administration tenure patterns: Historical precedent from previous Trump term showed varied cabinet stability, with some early exits and others serving full terms
What moved the line
- Apr 29Mike Huckabee↑10pp29→39¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Susie Wiles↓6pp38→32¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Todd Blanche↑6pp48→54¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Karoline Leavitt↓5pp48→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Steve Witkoff↓5pp25→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.