Will Ted Cruz become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Ted Cruz become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. The market is pricing Ted Cruz's Supreme Court appointment odds at just 10 cents with extremely thin liquidity ($96.88 in 24h volume), creating a 5-cent spread that represents significant slippage risk for any meaningful position.
Analysis
The market is pricing Ted Cruz's Supreme Court appointment odds at just 10 cents with extremely thin liquidity ($96.88 in 24h volume), creating a 5-cent spread that represents significant slippage risk for any meaningful position. The asymmetric implied yields—686.5% for Yes versus 1.9% for No—reflect the long-shot nature of the bet, though the 343% risk-adjusted yield suggests the market may be overpricing tail risk given the binary outcome structure. With over 1,000 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 19, this appears to be a speculative micro-market with minimal institutional participation rather than a serious probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If Ted Cruz is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSCOURT-29-TED yes 100