Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 14 and 16%?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 14 a.... This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market prices an extremely narrow outcome (14-16% Democratic margin) at just 6 cents, implying a 1,011% yield if Democrats hit that precise range—an unusually high return reflecting the specificity required.
Analysis
This market prices an extremely narrow outcome (14-16% Democratic margin) at just 6 cents, implying a 1,011% yield if Democrats hit that precise range—an unusually high return reflecting the specificity required. With zero 24-hour volume and only $6,185 in open interest, liquidity is essentially nonexistent, making the 3-cent spread potentially misleading as a true market price. The sharp decline from 7 cents to 6 cents over seven days suggests either shifting expectations toward larger or smaller Democratic margins, or simply thin-market noise given the lack of trading activity.
Resolution rules
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 14 and 16 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B15 yes 100