Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 a.... This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extremely asymmetric risk-adjusted returns (184% on Yes versus 10.5% on No) despite zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 15¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the thin liquidity of $11,830 open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extremely asymmetric risk-adjusted returns (184% on Yes versus 10.5% on No) despite zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 15¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the thin liquidity of $11,830 open interest. The 396.5% implied yield on Yes positions is exceptionally high relative to the neutral regime score, indicating either significant mispricing or market skepticism about Democrats achieving a 10-12 point House popular vote margin in 2026. With 565 days to expiration and a stable price over seven days, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the narrow 10-12% band itself may be driving the low probability, as broader Democratic victory scenarios could be priced higher elsewhere.
Resolution rules
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B11 yes 100