Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote between 10 and 12%
Democrats, 10 to 12% is priced at 18¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 10 inside KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03.
Price history
18¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Democrats, 10 to 12%
Rank
#3 of 10
Leader
Democrats, 8 to 10% 25¢
Range
2¢-25¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B11
Jun 23, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
19¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$5
Family rank
#3 of 10
10 outcomes · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 19¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B11
Event family
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Democrats, 8 to 10% 25¢
Current share
0%
Democrats, 8 to 10%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B9
Democrats, 6 to 8%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B7
Democrats, 10 to 12%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B11
Republicans win
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B50
Democrats, 4 to 6%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B5
Democrats, 12 to 14%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B13
Democrats, 2 to 4%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B3
Democrats, 16% and above
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B58
Democrats, 0 to 2%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B1
Democrats, 14 to 16%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B15
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.365
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.