Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 0 and 2%?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 0 an.... This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. The market is pricing an extremely tight Democratic House popular vote margin (0-2%) as highly unlikely at just 4¢, implying the market expects either a more decisive Democratic win or Republican victory.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely tight Democratic House popular vote margin (0-2%) as highly unlikely at just 4¢, implying the market expects either a more decisive Democratic win or Republican victory. The astronomical 1,549% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe illiquidity—with zero 24-hour volume and only $9,412 open interest, this price likely doesn't represent genuine consensus but rather reflects minimal trading activity and a wide bid-ask spread environment. With 566 days until expiry and a neutral regime, this market lacks sufficient depth to be actionable, though the extreme yield suggests potential mispricing if Democrats are expected to perform closer to historical narrow margins.
Resolution rules
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 0 and 2 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (2)
Trade
sf trade KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B1 yes 100