Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 16 and 100%?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 16 a.... This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely Democratic landslide (16-100 point margin) at just 5¢, implying only a 5% probability despite 566 days until resolution and $9,405 in open interest.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely unlikely Democratic landslide (16-100 point margin) at just 5¢, implying only a 5% probability despite 566 days until resolution and $9,405 in open interest. The astronomical 1,549% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either severe mispricing or that traders view such a decisive Democratic victory as nearly impossible given historical House popular vote margins typically range within single digits. With zero 24-hour volume and a recent price decline from 5¢ to 4¢, liquidity is essentially nonexistent, making the high yield figure potentially misleading as a true opportunity given execution risk.
Resolution rules
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 16 and 100 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B58 yes 100