Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 12 and 14%?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 12 a.... This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1226% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 3.4% on the No side, suggesting the 6¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of a 12-14% Democratic margin given historical volatility in House popular vote swings.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1226% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 3.4% on the No side, suggesting the 6¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of a 12-14% Democratic margin given historical volatility in House popular vote swings. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $10,032 open interest and a 2¢ spread indicates thin liquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to large moves if any significant political events shift expectations about 2026 outcomes. With 566 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 19, this appears to be a mispriced long-tail outcome that sophisticated traders may be avoiding due to illiquidity rather than fundamental disagreement on probability.
Resolution rules
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 12 and 14 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B13 yes 100