Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing in extremely high confidence (91%) that ICE removals will exceed 200,000 in FY2026, yet the $0 24-hour volume and minimal $366 open interest suggest severe illiquidity and potentially stale pricing.
Analysis
This market is pricing in extremely high confidence (91%) that ICE removals will exceed 200,000 in FY2026, yet the $0 24-hour volume and minimal $366 open interest suggest severe illiquidity and potentially stale pricing. The asymmetric implied yields—9.0% for Yes versus 2202.8% for No—indicate the No side is dramatically underpriced relative to risk, suggesting this may be a mispriced tail outcome or the market lacks sufficient participation to establish fair value. The sharp 8-cent rally over seven days combined with a 5-cent spread warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine conviction or merely thin-market dynamics ahead of the January 2027 resolution.
Resolution rules
If the number of ICE removals is above 200,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T200000 yes 100