Will the number of ICE removals be above 300000 in FY2026?

This market is pricing in extremely high confidence (96%) that ICE removals will exceed 300,000 in FY2026, yet the zero 24-hour volume and minimal $2,185 open interest suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing. The asymmetric implied yields—10.6% for Yes versus 1,868% for No—indicate the No position is dramatically undervalued relative to tail risk, and the sharp 14-point price rally over seven days combined with a moderate 13 cliff risk index suggests recent momentum may be driving sentiment rather than fundamental conviction. With 260 days to expiry and a 6¢ spread, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the extreme Yes price may not reflect true probability given the lack of market depth.

Resolution rules

If the number of ICE removals is above 300,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade