Will the number of ICE removals be above 600000 in FY2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will the number of ICE removals be above 600000 in FY2026?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The Yes position has collapsed 67% over seven days (from 4¢ to 12¢, now 17¢), suggesting recent data or policy shifts have substantially reduced expectations for high ICE removal numbers in FY2026.
Analysis
The Yes position has collapsed 67% over seven days (from 4¢ to 12¢, now 17¢), suggesting recent data or policy shifts have substantially reduced expectations for high ICE removal numbers in FY2026. The extreme 1031% implied yield on Yes reflects the deeply depressed 17% probability, though minimal liquidity ($5.55 daily volume, $1,864 open interest) and a wide 5¢ spread limit confidence in price discovery. With 260 days to resolution and a moderate cliff risk index of 7, this market appears to be pricing in either a baseline expectation of sub-600k removals or recent enforcement policy changes that traders are still digesting.
Resolution rules
If the number of ICE removals is above 600,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T600000 yes 100