Will there be more than 16 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Will there be more than 16 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. The 48¢ price reflects modest conviction that 2026 will exceed the 16-hurricane threshold, with the Yes side offering an exceptional 371.6% annualized yield despite nearly 8 months to expiration—a significant risk premium suggesting either genuine uncertainty or underpricing relative to historical Atlantic hurricane frequency.
Analysis
The 48¢ price reflects modest conviction that 2026 will exceed the 16-hurricane threshold, with the Yes side offering an exceptional 371.6% annualized yield despite nearly 8 months to expiration—a significant risk premium suggesting either genuine uncertainty or underpricing relative to historical Atlantic hurricane frequency. Liquidity is extremely thin at just $633 in open interest with an 18¢ spread, making this market vulnerable to sharp repricing on new climate data or seasonal forecasts, though the flat 7-day price action indicates current equilibrium. The neutral regime score and low cliff risk suggest this is pricing a genuine coin-flip scenario rather than reflecting tail risk dynamics.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 16 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T16 yes 100