Gemini 3.5 Release Imminent – Probability Soars 83 Points
The market for 'Gemini 3.5 released by May 31' jumped from 4¢ to 87¢ after an internal Google documentation leak. This is the largest AI-related move of the day.
Key takeaways
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The market for 'Gemini 3.5 released by May 31' jumped from 4¢ to 87¢ after an internal Google documentation leak.
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This is the largest AI-related move of the day.
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In the AI tech vertical, the `Gemini 3.5 released by...?: May 31` market on Polymarket saw an extraordinary 83-point move, from 4¢ to 87¢, on volume of 63,629.
Full analysis
In the AI tech vertical, the `Gemini 3.5 released by...?: May 31` market on Polymarket saw an extraordinary 83-point move, from 4¢ to 87¢, on volume of 63,629. The catalyst appears to be a leaked changelog indicating a major update to Google's Gemini model. This has also lifted the `Which company has the best AI model end of May?` market, where Anthropic leads at 86¢ (up 3¢) but Google's share is gaining. The kalshi `Best AI in May 2026?` contract shows Anthropic at 98¢, suggesting a near-monopoly in May, but the long-term `Best AI in Dec 2026?` market shows Anthropic at only 57¢, indicating competition ahead. Traders should note the `Claude 5 released by…?: May 31, 2026` contract at 4¢, which could move if Anthropic counters. The Gemini 3.5 release, if confirmed, would be a significant statement in the AI arms race, potentially impacting tech sector sentiment and IPO valuations for AI companies like Anthropic and SpaceX. The rapid repricing shows how sensitive these markets are to product announcements.
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