Fed Hold at 96¢ – July Meeting the Biggest Market on Kalshi
The market for a 0bp rate hike at the July 2026 Fed meeting is at 96¢ with over 1.1M volume. No cut or hike is priced in. This is the single most liquid contract on Kalshi.
Key takeaways
- 01
The market for a 0bp rate hike at the July 2026 Fed meeting is at 96¢ with over 1.1M volume.
- 02
No cut or hike is priced in.
- 03
This is the single most liquid contract on Kalshi.
Full analysis
The Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting is the single most traded event on Kalshi. The market "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting?" (KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-) sits at 96¢, implying a 96% probability of no change. Volume exceeds 1.1 million contracts, making it the most liquid market in the entire dataset. The opposite contracts—cutting 25bps (1¢) or hiking 25bps (3¢)—are priced near zero, reflecting overwhelming market conviction of a hold. Traders should watch the KXFEDDECISION series for any shifts in probability ahead of the July 31 decision. The Fed's decision will ripple across all assets, especially rate-sensitive markets like the Nasdaq-100 (KXNASDAQ100) and Bitcoin (KXBTCD).
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