Fed On Hold: 78¢ Probability of No Rate Move at July Meeting
Fed July meeting market (20¢ hike, 78¢ hold) shows overwhelming consensus for no move. Backing this, CPI YoY above 3.6% trades at 96¢, recession probability is just 10¢, and the year-end rate cut count of 0 trades at 76¢. The market is firmly in 'higher for longer' territory.
Key takeaways
- 01
Fed July meeting market (20¢ hike, 78¢ hold) shows overwhelming consensus for no move.
- 02
Backing this, CPI YoY above 3.6% trades at 96¢, recession probability is just 10¢, and the year-end rate cut count of 0 trades at 76¢.
- 03
The market is firmly in 'higher for longer' territory.
Full analysis
The Federal Reserve July 2026 meeting is the single most traded macroeconomic event in the dataset. The 'Hike 25bps' contract sits at 20¢ with 289K volume, while the '0bps' (hold) outcome is favored at 78¢ with 170K volume. Cutting probabilities are negligible—'Cut 25bps' trades at just 1¢. This pricing aligns with the broader inflation picture: the June CPI year-over-year market above 3.6% is trading at 96¢, and the 'recession in 2026' contract is only 10¢, suggesting the market anticipates resilient growth and persistent inflation that keeps the Fed on hold. The 'rate cut count 0 times' contract for the year sits at 76¢, reinforcing the no-easing stance. Traders are pricing a 'higher for longer' Fed with high conviction.
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sf query "fed hold july 2026" && sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-