Fed Paused: Markets Price 90% Chance of July Hold, No Cuts in 2026
Prediction markets show a 90% probability (90¢) of a 0bps hike at the Fed's July 2026 meeting. Traders see no cuts in 2026, forcing a reassessment of rate-sensitive positions.
Key takeaways
- 01
Prediction markets show a 90% probability (90¢) of a 0bps hike at the Fed's July 2026 meeting.
- 02
Traders see no cuts in 2026, forcing a reassessment of rate-sensitive positions.
- 03
The Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting is dominating prediction market activity, with traders overwhelmingly betting on a hold scenario.
Full analysis
The Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting is dominating prediction market activity, with traders overwhelmingly betting on a hold scenario. The market `KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-` shows a 90% probability (90¢) that the Fed will hike rates by 0bps. Conversely, the market for a 25bps cut, `KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-`, trades at just 1¢, while a 25bps hike sits at 8¢. The broader outlook, as reflected in `KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC`, suggests a 74% chance of zero cumulative cuts by year-end. This hawkish sentiment is reinforced by the market for a rate cut before 2027, `KXRATECUT-26DEC31`, which has dropped to 26¢. Traders should monitor upcoming CPI data, with `KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.7` pricing a 69% probability that inflation remains above 3.7%, supporting the 'higher for longer' narrative.
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