Fed Rate Markets Price 88% Probability of Hold, Zero Cuts in 2026
Fed hold probability at 88% for July meeting with 76% chance of zero cuts in 2026. Inflation expectations remain elevated above 3.7%, consistent with hawkish stance.
Key takeaways
- 01
Fed hold probability at 88% for July meeting with 76% chance of zero cuts in 2026.
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Inflation expectations remain elevated above 3.7%, consistent with hawkish stance.
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Federal Reserve rate decision markets for July 2026 show overwhelming consensus for a hold at 88¢ probability, with only 10% chance of a 25bps hike and negligible probability of a cut.
Full analysis
Federal Reserve rate decision markets for July 2026 show overwhelming consensus for a hold at 88¢ probability, with only 10% chance of a 25bps hike and negligible probability of a cut. The broader rate cut count market indicates 76% probability of zero cuts in 2026, suggesting markets expect the Fed to maintain its current stance through year-end. This hawkish positioning aligns with CPI inflation expectations showing a 71% probability of inflation above 3.7% year-over-year, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' narrative that has been driving equity market compression, particularly in growth sectors like QQQ which fell 1.56% today.
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sf query "fed rate decision July 2026" && sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUL