Fed Rate Cut Bets Rise as Powell Exit Looms, Warsh Confirmation at 99¢
Rate cut odds are creeping up as Powell's exit probability and Warsh confirmation approach 100%, signaling a potential dovish pivot.
Key takeaways
- 01
Rate cut odds are creeping up as Powell's exit probability and Warsh confirmation approach 100%, signaling a potential dovish pivot.
- 02
Fed rate cut speculation is heating up ahead of the June decision.
- 03
The 'Fed Decision in June: 25 bps decrease' contract rose 1¢ to 4¢ on volume of 152k, while 'No change' remains at 96¢ with 87k volume.
Full analysis
Fed rate cut speculation is heating up ahead of the June decision. The 'Fed Decision in June: 25 bps decrease' contract rose 1¢ to 4¢ on volume of 152k, while 'No change' remains at 96¢ with 87k volume. The 'How many Fed rate cuts in 2026: 0' contract dropped 2¢ to 56¢, indicating traders are pricing in at least one cut. The most liquid contract, KXFEDDECISION-26JUN- (0 bps hike), sits at 95¢ with 85k volume and a 1¢ spread. The Kevin Warsh confirmation as Fed chair (99¢) and Powell out (22¢) suggest a leadership change is likely, which could accelerate policy shifts. Traders should watch the July meeting contracts for follow-through.
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sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-