Fed Rate Markets See 73% Chance of No Hike in September
Fed rate decision markets show a 73% probability of no hike in September, with the 25bp hike contract at 26%. Unemployment and CPI contracts indicate a still-warm economy.
Key takeaways
- 01
Fed rate decision markets show a 73% probability of no hike in September, with the 25bp hike contract at 26%.
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Unemployment and CPI contracts indicate a still-warm economy.
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Traders are heavily betting on Fed inaction at the September 2026 meeting, with the 'Hike by 0bps' contract (KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-) trading at 73¢ on 32,684 contracts.
Full analysis
Traders are heavily betting on Fed inaction at the September 2026 meeting, with the 'Hike by 0bps' contract (KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-) trading at 73¢ on 32,684 contracts. The 25bps hike contract sits at 26¢. The market is pricing in a 73% chance of no rate change, reflecting the current economic uncertainty. Additionally, the unemployment rate is expected to remain low, with the U-3 above 4.2% contract (KXU3-26AUG-T4.2) at 31¢, suggesting a tight labor market. Traders should monitor upcoming CPI and jobs data, as any surprise could shift these probabilities significantly.
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