Will someone be nominated for a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before Oct 1, 2026
Leader sits at 64% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 60%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2028
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
60¢
Before Oct 1, 2027
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
493 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will someone be nominated for a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before
Will someone be nominated for a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXFEDGOVNOM-29-26OCT01
Will someone be nominated for a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXFEDGOVNOM-29-28JAN01
Will someone be nominated for a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before Oct 1, 2027?: Before Oct 1, 2027
KXFEDGOVNOM-29-27OCT01
Will someone be nominated for a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027
KXFEDGOVNOM-29-27JUL01
Will someone be nominated for a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXFEDGOVNOM-29-27JAN01
Will someone be nominated for a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before Apr 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027
KXFEDGOVNOM-29-27APR01
Analysis
This market estimates a 3% probability that someone will be nominated to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before October 1, 2026—roughly two months from now. The extremely low probability reflects the tight timeframe: nominating a Fed governor is a formal process requiring presidential selection and public announcement. Currently, there are no announced vacancies on the Board expected before this date, and Fed governors typically serve 14-year terms. The probability increases substantially to 21% if the timeframe extends to January 2027 and 50% by April 2027, suggesting traders expect any near-term nomination to occur during the fall or winter rather than by early autumn. A sudden retirement announcement or vacancy would be the primary catalyst that could shift these odds significantly higher.
- ›No announced Board vacancies are currently scheduled for the period before October 1, 2026
- ›Federal Reserve governors serve 14-year fixed terms, creating predictable vacancy windows
- ›Presidential nominations require public announcement and typically follow strategic timing decisions by the White House
- ›Trading volume is concentrated in the April 2027 contract (50¢) versus the October 2026 contract (7¢), indicating traders assign most nomination probability to later periods
- ›Historical Fed nominations have occurred sporadically; there is no standing schedule forcing action by any specific date
What moved the line
- Aug 20Before Oct 1, 2027↓13pp60→47¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Before Oct 1, 2027↑11pp47→58¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Before Apr 1, 2027↓10pp48→38¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Before Jul 1, 2027↓9pp54→45¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Before Apr 1, 2027↑8pp38→46¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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