Will SOFR be above 4.25 by end of Q4 2026
Leader sits at 91% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 3.00%
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
Above 3.25%
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jan 4, 2027
192 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will SOFR be above
Will SOFR be above 3.75 by end of Q2 2026?: Above 3.75%
KXCREDITC-26JUL01-T3.75
Will SOFR be above 3.50 by end of Q4 2026?: Above 3.50%
KXCREDITC-27JAN05-T3.50
Will SOFR be above 3.25 by end of Q4 2026?: Above 3.25%
KXCREDITC-27JAN05-T3.25
Will SOFR be above 3.00 by end of Q4 2026?: Above 3.00%
KXCREDITC-27JAN05-T3.00
Will SOFR be above 4.75 by end of Q4 2026?: Above 4.75%
KXCREDITC-27JAN05-T4.75
Will SOFR be above 4.50 by end of Q4 2026?: Above 4.50%
KXCREDITC-27JAN05-T4.50
Will SOFR be above 4.25 by end of Q4 2026?: Above 4.25%
KXCREDITC-27JAN05-T4.25
Will SOFR be above 4.00 by end of Q4 2026?: Above 4.00%
KXCREDITC-27JAN05-T4.00
Will SOFR be above 3.75 by end of Q4 2026?: Above 3.75%
KXCREDITC-27JAN05-T3.75
Analysis
This probability represents a 91% chance that the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) will remain above 3.00% through the end of December 2026. The market is pricing in a high likelihood of rates staying elevated, reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain restrictive policy longer than historical norms suggest or cut only modestly from current levels. The main driver is inflation persistence—if price pressures remain stubborn, rate cuts will be delayed or smaller; conversely, recession concerns or rapid disinflation would increase the probability of deeper cuts below 3.00%. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions at each scheduled meeting through December represent the primary catalyst, with monthly inflation data (CPI/PCE releases) and employment reports directly influencing Fed guidance. Market expectations will shift most sharply around major economic data releases and FOMC communications that signal rate-path shifts.
- ›Current SOFR levels and recent Fed action establish the baseline; SOFR would need to fall roughly 150–175 basis points from typical 2026 levels to break below 3.00% by year-end
- ›Inflation trajectory through Q4 2026—particularly PCE and core CPI—will determine whether the Fed maintains, pauses, or cuts rates; disinflation would increase the probability SOFR falls below 3.00%
- ›Labor market strength and unemployment trends; persistent job growth typically supports higher rates, while a sharp rise in unemployment would pressure SOFR downward
- ›Futures market pricing for Fed funds rates at end-2026 currently implies SOFR remaining in the 3.00–3.75% range under consensus scenarios
- ›Geopolitical shocks, credit events, or financial instability could force emergency rate cuts that would dramatically increase the odds SOFR falls below 3.00%
What moved the line
- Jun 19Above 3.75%↓8pp19→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 3.75%↑8pp2→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Above 3.75%↓6pp11→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Above 3.50%↑5pp84→89¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Above 4.00%↑5pp43→48¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Deepen as CPI Data Looms
Markets are pricing in a high 82% probability of no rate hike in July, while the debate over the total number of 2026 cuts intensifies. The CPI report for June is the next major catalyst, with a 65% probability of inflation exceeding 3.7%.
Fed Holds Steady: No Rate Action Expected in July
The market is fully priced for a Fed hold in July, with the 'no hike' contract at 75¢ and a 25bps hike at 24¢. The probability of no cuts by year-end is also 75%, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' narrative.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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