Trump Drops Powell Investigation — Fed Independence Risk Evaporates
Markets exploded today as traders priced in near-certainty that Trump is dropping his investigation of Jerome Powell. The April 30 contract surged +76¢ to 93¢ and the June 30 version hit 95¢ (+26¢). Meanwhile Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed Chair by May 15 jumped +47¢ to 77¢, and Powell's exit from the Fed Board itself is now at 57¢ (+30¢).
Key takeaways
- 01
Markets exploded today as traders priced in near-certainty that Trump is dropping his investigation of Jerome Powell.
- 02
The April 30 contract surged +76¢ to 93¢ and the June 30 version hit 95¢ (+26¢).
- 03
Meanwhile Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed Chair by May 15 jumped +47¢ to 77¢, and Powell's exit from the Fed Board itself is now at 57¢ (+30¢).
Full analysis
Today's most explosive moves in any category came from Fed leadership markets. The 'Trump drops Powell investigation by April 30' contract (0xe6770972b8d072a406) surged an extraordinary +76¢ to 93¢, making it the single largest positive move in the entire dataset. This suggests significant news — likely a White House statement or reporting — that Trump has abandoned any effort to fire or investigate Powell before the Warsh transition.
Simultaneously, Kevin Warsh's confirmation timeline is accelerating dramatically. The 'Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15' market (0x634ac8f30b4aac7e4b) jumped +47¢ to 77¢, while the June 30 version (0x7512c6217a334f8a4e) sits at 97¢ (+15¢). On Kalshi, KXFEDCHAIRCONFIRM-KW shows 98¢ confirmation probability.
The 'Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by May 30' market (0x55c601357c17cb0344) rose +30¢ to 57¢ — this is notable because it tracks Powell leaving the Board of Governors entirely, not just stepping down as Chair. Such a departure would be historically unprecedented.
For traders, the key implication is that a Warsh-led Fed is now the base case within weeks. Warsh is generally considered more hawkish than Powell, potentially changing rate cut expectations dramatically. The Fed rate cut count for 2026 market (0xd4e77ba6f29fc09350) shows 0 cuts at 41¢ — a key market to watch as Warsh's policy stance becomes clearer. The 'no change' April FOMC (KXFEDDECISION-26APR-) at 99¢ remains locked in for next week's meeting.
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