Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Jul 31, 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.4% or above
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
4.5% or above
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
2 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.59% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.6% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.59
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.69% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.7% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.69
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.74% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.75% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.74
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.65% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.64
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.55% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.54
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.5% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.49
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Jul 31, 2026?: 5.15% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T5.14
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.45% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.44
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.4% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.39
Analysis
This market reflects a 96% probability that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.64% by July 31, 2026—roughly three weeks away. The current 10Y yield sits near this level, so the market is pricing a high likelihood it stays at or rises above this threshold. Treasury yields are driven by expectations for Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, and broader economic growth; if markets begin pricing in sustained rate cuts or economic slowdown, yields could fall below the 4.64% mark. The most significant catalyst is the monthly employment report (typically released the first Friday after month-end), which could shift expectations around Fed rate trajectories. Other scheduled data releases including inflation figures and consumer confidence could also move yields materially in either direction during this window.
- ›Current 10Y yield is trading near 4.64%, requiring only a modest move upward or stability to resolve YES
- ›Kalshi's related contracts show declining probabilities at higher yield thresholds (36¢ at 4.54%, 14¢ at 4.64%), indicating conviction that higher yields are less likely
- ›The July employment report (first Friday in August) will arrive after this contract expires, removing one major source of immediate uncertainty
- ›Any shift in Fed rate-cut expectations or inflation data released before July 31 could materially move the 10Y yield
- ›The short 23-day window limits the time available for large yield movements compared to longer-dated predictions
Recently closed in fed rate
- Will Jerome Powell be removed as Fed Chair?last 9% · 0d
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 54% · 0d
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 30% · 0d
- Will SOFR hit __ in April?: ↑3.74%last 27% · 26d
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027last 80% · 39d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in fed rate.
In fed rate
Related reading
Fed Rate Decision Heats Up: 56¢ Probability for a September Hike
The largest macro market today revolves around the Fed's September 2026 decision. The 'Hike by 25bps' contract sits at 56¢, implying a 56% chance of tightening. Over 1.7M contracts have traded across the rate decision complex, making it the most active macro event on the board. The hold-at-0bps market is trading at 41¢ with 1.2M volume alone.
Fed Rate Decision Markets See Massive Volume as September 2026 Meeting Approaches
The KXFEDDECISION contracts are the most heavily traded prediction markets overall, with over 500K volume on the 'hike 0bps' outcome. The market currently prices a 46% chance of no change and 53% for a 25bp hike, reflecting deep uncertainty about the Fed's next move.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.