Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Jul 31, 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.4% or above
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
4.5% or above
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
2 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.59% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.6% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.59
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.69% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.7% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.69
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.74% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.75% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.74
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.65% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.64
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.55% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.54
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.5% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.49
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Jul 31, 2026?: 5.15% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T5.14
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.45% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.44
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.4% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.39
Analysis
This market reflects a 96% probability that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.64% by July 31, 2026—roughly three weeks away. The current 10Y yield sits near this level, so the market is pricing a high likelihood it stays at or rises above this threshold. Treasury yields are driven by expectations for Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, and broader economic growth; if markets begin pricing in sustained rate cuts or economic slowdown, yields could fall below the 4.64% mark. The most significant catalyst is the monthly employment report (typically released the first Friday after month-end), which could shift expectations around Fed rate trajectories. Other scheduled data releases including inflation figures and consumer confidence could also move yields materially in either direction during this window.
- ›Current 10Y yield is trading near 4.64%, requiring only a modest move upward or stability to resolve YES
- ›Kalshi's related contracts show declining probabilities at higher yield thresholds (36¢ at 4.54%, 14¢ at 4.64%), indicating conviction that higher yields are less likely
- ›The July employment report (first Friday in August) will arrive after this contract expires, removing one major source of immediate uncertainty
- ›Any shift in Fed rate-cut expectations or inflation data released before July 31 could materially move the 10Y yield
- ›The short 23-day window limits the time available for large yield movements compared to longer-dated predictions
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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