Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Jul 31, 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 89%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.3% or above
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
89¢
4.35% or above
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$189
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
22 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.59% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.6% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.59
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.55% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.54
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.5% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.49
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.65% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.64
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.45% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.44
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.69% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.7% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.69
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.4% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.39
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.34% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.35% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.34
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.3% or above
KXUST10AM-26JUL31-T4.29
Analysis
This market reflects a 96% probability that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.64% by July 31, 2026—roughly three weeks away. The current 10Y yield sits near this level, so the market is pricing a high likelihood it stays at or rises above this threshold. Treasury yields are driven by expectations for Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, and broader economic growth; if markets begin pricing in sustained rate cuts or economic slowdown, yields could fall below the 4.64% mark. The most significant catalyst is the monthly employment report (typically released the first Friday after month-end), which could shift expectations around Fed rate trajectories. Other scheduled data releases including inflation figures and consumer confidence could also move yields materially in either direction during this window.
- ›Current 10Y yield is trading near 4.64%, requiring only a modest move upward or stability to resolve YES
- ›Kalshi's related contracts show declining probabilities at higher yield thresholds (36¢ at 4.54%, 14¢ at 4.64%), indicating conviction that higher yields are less likely
- ›The July employment report (first Friday in August) will arrive after this contract expires, removing one major source of immediate uncertainty
- ›Any shift in Fed rate-cut expectations or inflation data released before July 31 could materially move the 10Y yield
- ›The short 23-day window limits the time available for large yield movements compared to longer-dated predictions
What moved the line
- Jul 84.3% or above↑25pp70→95¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 84.35% or above↑20pp67→87¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 84.6% or above↑17pp14→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 94.55% or above↑15pp37→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 84.45% or above↑11pp42→53¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 49% · 0d
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 17% · 0d
- Will 10Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.45%last 3% · 8d
- Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.95%last 14% · 8d
- Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.10%last 10% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In fed rate
Related reading
Fed Stay-or-Cut: Market Hawks Win as Rate Cut Hopes Fade
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady in July (79¢ for no hike) with the market pricing zero rate cuts for all of 2026 at 76¢. Core CPI expectations remain sticky at 77% probability of rising more than 0.1% in June, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' narrative. Traders should watch the KXFEDDECISION series for July and September meetings.
Fed Set to Hold Steady as Rate Cut Hopes Fade for 2026
The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to hold rates at the July 2026 meeting (84¢ probability), and the market sees zero rate cuts through December as the base case at 75¢. This hawkish posture supports the dollar and bond yields while challenging risk assets.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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