Will ARIRANG be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$47
5 contracts
Closes
Dec 26, 2027
504 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will ARIRANG be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling
Will ARIRANG be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?: ARIRANG
KXMUSICREPORT-TOPVYNLSALE27DEC31-ARI
Will ARIRANG be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling CD Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?: ARIRANG
KXMUSICREPORT-TOPCDSALE27DEC31-ARI
Cluster 2
Will Choosin’ Texas be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10 Most-Streamed Songs of 2026 in U.S. (On-Demand Audio), as Published by Billboard
Cluster 3
Will SWIM be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10 Most-Streamed Songs of 2026 in U.S. (On-Demand Audio), as Published by Billboard
Cluster 4
Will Dandelion be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling CD Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard
Analysis
This contract asks whether ARIRANG will be the #1 selling CD album on Luminate's 2026 year-end report published by Billboard. The 10% probability reflects modest odds against this outcome. The contract's current valuation suggests market participants view ARIRANG as a niche or regional album facing competition from established releases. What would move the probability depends on streaming and sales data accumulated through year-end in December. The primary driver will be actual unit sales reported by Luminate in their official 2026 year-end rankings, which Billboard publishes after the calendar year closes. Until that report releases, prices will fluctuate based on chart performance, commercial activity, and media coverage of the album through the remainder of 2026.
- ›ARIRANG's CD sales performance relative to other major album releases tracked by Luminate through December 2026
- ›The album's current and projected chart trajectory and commercial momentum in the physical media market
- ›Whether the album generates sustained consumer demand or relies on concentrated fan purchases in specific periods
- ›Competition from established catalog titles and major new releases scheduled for H2 2026
- ›Luminate's methodology for calculating album units and ranking top performers across all format types
What moved the line
- Aug 4Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?: ARIRANG↑4pp28→32¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?: ARIRANG↑3pp32→35¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Top 10-Selling CD Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?: ARIRANG↑3pp62→65¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Top 10-Selling CD Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?: ARIRANG↑3pp65→68¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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