Will July 10 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$15K
3 contracts
Closes
Jul 14, 2026
5 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will July 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)
Cluster 2
Will July 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)
Cluster 3
Will July 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)
Analysis
This contract resolves based on which single day between July 6-12 records the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint. The 14% probability for July 10 reflects relatively even distribution across the week, with no day commanding overwhelming odds. Transit volumes through the strait fluctuate based on shipping schedules, port congestion, geopolitical events, and weather patterns. July 10 sits in the middle of the measurement window, neither advantaged by typical week-start clustering nor disadvantaged by weekend effects. The contract resolves definitively once official transit data becomes available post-week, making this primarily a question of predicting routine maritime traffic patterns rather than rare events. Current low trading volume across all daily contracts suggests limited conviction among traders about any particular day's dominance.
- ›Historical shipping patterns show whether midweek days (July 9-10) typically exceed early-week transit volumes
- ›Scheduled port maintenance or reported congestion at major Gulf terminals during this specific week
- ›Geopolitical developments affecting transit risk premiums or voluntary routing decisions by shipping companies
- ›Weather conditions in the strait during July 9-10 relative to adjacent days
- ›Current order books and vessel scheduling data for major shipping lines operating through the corridor
What moved the line
- Jul 9July 7↑39pp29→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8July 6↑32pp8→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9July 6↓31pp40→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8July 7↑17pp12→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8July 8↓8pp12→4¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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