Trump Impeachment Odds Surge Above 60% Over Full Term Horizon
The KXIMPEACH contract is pricing a 63¢ probability of Trump being impeached before Jan 20, 2029, making it one of the highest-conviction political tail risks on the platform. The Insurrection Act market at 17¢ adds another layer of governance risk.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will the President be impeached before Jan 20, 2029?: Before Jan 20, 2029
63¢Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027
17¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
The KXIMPEACH contract is pricing a 63¢ probability of Trump being impeached before Jan 20, 2029, making it one of the highest-conviction political tail risks on the platform.
- 02
The Insurrection Act market at 17¢ adds another layer of governance risk.
- 03
Trump political event markets are attracting distinct pockets of liquidity, with impeachment emerging as a standout.
Full analysis
Trump political event markets are attracting distinct pockets of liquidity, with impeachment emerging as a standout. The KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20 contract at 63¢ (volume 448) suggests the market sees a >1-in-2 chance of formal impeachment proceedings within his term, a notable departure from the base case of unified Republican control. The Insurrection Act market (KXINSURRECTION-29-27 at 17¢, volume 5,074) captures a lower-probability but higher-impact scenario of Trump invoking emergency powers. Deportation enforcement is also being priced: the market for ICE removals above 450,000 FY2026 at 29¢ (volume 3,313) reflects expectations of stepped-up enforcement. The 22nd amendment repeal market (KXAMEND22 at 6¢, volume 4,632) is a very long shot, but volume indicates some traders are positioning for a constitutional crisis if Congressional control shifts. The key dynamic is that the Trump election win markets (KXPRESPERSON) show multiple candidates with diffuse odds—J.D. Vance at 43¢ and Donald Trump himself at 2¢—reflecting uncertainty about whether Trump will be the standard-bearer or face intra-party challenges. Traders should monitor the 2028 GOP primary contracts for early signal of party fracture.
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sf book KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20 && sf query "trump impeachment 2026"