Trump Mention Markets See Frenzied Activity as Traders Bet on His Next Fox News Line
The largest cluster of Trump-related trading is in 'mention' markets, where contracts predict specific phrases Donald Trump will say during his Fox News appearances or speeches. The most liquid contract trades at 99¢ with 54,452 volume. These markets represent a unique form of political sentiment trading, with dozens of specific phrases being priced with near-certainty.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: J.D. Vance
41¢Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Gavin Newsom
16¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
The largest cluster of Trump-related trading is in 'mention' markets, where contracts predict specific phrases Donald Trump will say during his Fox News appearances or speeches.
- 02
The most liquid contract trades at 99¢ with 54,452 volume.
- 03
These markets represent a unique form of political sentiment trading, with dozens of specific phrases being priced with near-certainty.
Full analysis
The Trump mention markets on Kalshi have become a major trading phenomenon, with the contract 'What will Donald Trump say during Fox News at Night?' (KXTRUMPMENTION) seeing over 54,000 in volume across multiple outcome tokens. The specific phrase betting — such as 'Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" before Aug 10, 2026?' trading at 99¢ — suggests traders are highly confident in predicting his rhetorical patterns.
Beyond the mention markets, the 2028 Republican primary is taking shape. JD Vance is the early frontrunner for the GOP nomination at 39¢ (KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV), followed by Ron DeSantis at 5¢ (KXPRESNOMR-28-RDS) and Tucker Carlson at 3¢ (KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR). Donald Trump Jr. is at 4¢ (KXPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR). The 'Trump out before 2027' market (KXTRUMPOUT27) trades at 5¢, indicating very low probability of an early departure.
The Truth Social post count markets (KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26AUG0 series) show traders betting Trump will make between 220-240 posts in the week of Aug 2 (20¢), with below 80 posts trading at just 1¢. These markets provide a unique proxy for the former president's engagement levels.
On the Democratic side, the 2028 primary is more fragmented: Gavin Newsom leads at 16¢ (KXPRESNOMD-28-GN), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 14¢ (KXPRESNOMD-28-AOC), Jon Ossoff at 13¢ (KXPRESNOMD-28-JOSS), and Kamala Harris at 10¢ (KXPRESNOMD-28-KH). The broad field suggests no clear frontrunner has emerged yet.
Related markets
Source markets at a glance
The contracts behind this dispatch — current price + 24h volume. Click any card for live orderbook data.
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sf query "trump mention fox news"