Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Contract Surges to 100¢ on Massive Volume

In the most dramatic move of the day, the Polymarket market “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?” (ID: 0xa93b28a6384aefff4e) rose from 4 cents to 100 cents, a 96¢ gain. Volume was massive at 30.8 million, indicating a huge information event. The companion contract for June 30 also hit 100¢, up 93¢ with 6.3 million volume. These are the highest volume and largest price swings across all markets today.

Such a move typically indicates that traders have high confidence in a near-term ceasefire. Possible catalysts include a leaked diplomatic breakthrough, a statement from a key leader, or credible news reporting. Traders should also watch the related “Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?” contract (P | 0xa57a027158ce73973c) which only rose to 9¢, suggesting that a full peace deal is still seen as unlikely even if a ceasefire occurs.

Key contracts to watch: - P | 0xa93b28a6384aefff4e (ceasefire May 31) – now at 100¢, but could drop if no announcement - P | 0xe546672750517f62c4 (ceasefire June 30) – 100¢ - P | 0xa57a027158ce73973c (peace deal June 30) – 9¢, room for upside if ceasefire leads to talks - P | 0x4167e22670f31e5f93 (peace deal before 2027) – 29¢, could rise if ceasefire materializes