Ukraine peace deal probability edges up as diplomatic rumors swirl
The 'Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027' contract rose 4¢ to 37¢, while 'by June 30' rose 2¢. Zelenskyy out probability tripled to 6¢. These moves suggest renewed hope for a ceasefire.
Key takeaways
- 01
The 'Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027' contract rose 4¢ to 37¢, while 'by June 30' rose 2¢.
- 02
Zelenskyy out probability tripled to 6¢.
- 03
These moves suggest renewed hope for a ceasefire.
Full analysis
Ukraine-related markets saw modest but notable gains today. The largest volume contract, 'Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30', rose 2¢ to 11¢ (vol 43.8k). The longer-dated 'before 2027' contract increased 4¢ to 37¢ (vol 25k), a bigger move in percentage terms. Meanwhile, the 'Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?' contract jumped 3¢ to 6¢ (vol 29.7k), which may indicate speculation about political change as a precondition for peace. The 'Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30' is at 8¢. While volumes are not huge, the directional shift is consistent with diplomatic rumors. Key catalysts to watch: 'Putin out as President of Russia by Dec 31, 2026' (12¢, +1¢) and 'Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by Dec 31?' (40¢, +2¢). If peace momentum builds, front-month contracts could see sharp moves.
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